分析师预测跨期更新反映了审计调整信息吗？

财经论丛 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (7): 74-84.

分析师预测跨期更新反映了审计调整信息吗？

刘青青^{1, 2}, 陈宋生¹

1.北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京 100081;
2.北京工商大学商学院,北京 100048

收稿日期:2018-10-11 出版日期:2019-07-10 发布日期:2019-07-08
作者简介:刘青青(1991-),女,陕西汉中人,北京理工大学管理与经济学院博士生,北京工商大学商学院讲师;陈宋生(1966-),男,江西赣州人,北京理工大学管理与经济学院教授,博士生导师。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71372016;71672009)

Do Analysts' Cross-year Updates Reflect the Information of Audit Adjustment?

LIU Qingqing^1,2,CHEN Songsheng¹

1.School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;
2.Business School, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China

Received:2018-10-11 Online:2019-07-10 Published:2019-07-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 已有研究关注分析师预测变动是否向市场传递了积极/消极信息以及市场的反应力度,较少对分析师预测变动的具体幅度及其传递的信息含量做出剖析。为此,运用2006~2012年会计师事务所向行业监管部门报备的上市公司审计前后盈余调整数据,探究分析师从非审计期(每年的5月1日~12月31日)到审计期(次年1月1日至4月30日)的盈余预测值的更新是否以及多大程度反映了审计调整这一内部信息。研究结果显示,分析师盈余预测值跨期更新与审计调整之间正相关,盈余预测跨期更新能反映近40%的上市公司审计调整信息。更进一步地,预测频率高的分析师所做的更新、更新后准确度上升、以及贴近年报公布日的更新能够较多地传递审计调整信息。

关键词: 分析师, 盈余预测, 跨期更新, 审计调整

Abstract: Existing researches mainly focus on whether the changes of analysts' earnings forecasts convey positive/negative information to the capital market and how the investors react to these changes, while few researches test the specific range of these changes or the amount of the information conveyed by them. This paper investigates whether and to what extent the changes of analysts' forecasts between the non-audit period(May 1st to December 31st of year t) and the audit period (January 1st to April 30th of year t+1) can reflect the audit adjustment. The results show that the cross-year updates of analysts' EPS forecasts are positively related to the audit adjustment. The coefficient shows that nearly forty percent of the audit adjustment information will be reflected by the cross-year changes of analysts' earnings forecasts. Furthermore,for analysts who have higher forecast frequency,or have better forecast performance in the audit period,or issue the last forecast close to the announcement day of annual reports,these cross-year changes will reflect more information of the audit adjustment.

Key words: Analysts, Earnings forecasts, Cross-year update, Audit adjustment

中图分类号:

F832.51

刘青青, 陈宋生. 分析师预测跨期更新反映了审计调整信息吗？[J]. 财经论丛, 2019, 35(7): 74-84.

LIU Qingqing,CHEN Songsheng. Do Analysts' Cross-year Updates Reflect the Information of Audit Adjustment?[J]. , 2019, 35(7): 74-84.

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