金融试验改革对地区经济增长的影响研究——基于双重差分法(DID)的经验证据

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文选取2008年第一季度至2016年第一季度的省级面板数据,采用准自然实验双重差分(DID)法实证分析了金融试验改革促区域经济增长政策效应,结果发现实施区域金融试验改革对当地经济增长有正向促进作用。进一步研究发现,第一,金融试验改革正向促进地区经济增长存在季度时滞,总体上要经过4个季度改革正向效应效果才变得显著;第二,金融试验改革对经济增长的促进效应存在明显的倒U型特征,政策效应先期较小,中期较大,后期再次变小;第三,金融试验改革在我国发达地区主要是通过促进服务业部门增长来拉动经济增长,在比较发达地区主要通过促进工业部门和服务业部门增长来拉动经济增长,在经济欠发达地区主要是通过促进工业部门增长来拉动经济增长。另外,政府过度干预经济降低了要素资源配置效率,减少了地区经济自由度和发展活力;对外贸易参与度较高地区的金融试验改革对工业部门和服务业部门的促进作用不如对外贸易参与度相对较低地区显著。

关键词: 金融改革试验, 产业创新升级, 经济增长

Abstract: The establishment of financial reform pilot zones is an important measure to deepen the national reform. The purpose is to strengthen regional economic development, promoting financial development and financial innovation, improving the role of financial development in promoting the real economy, and avoiding the emergence of the economy from reality to financial emptiness. Based on the analysis of the provincial panel data from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2016, this paper empirically studies the policy effects of the establishment of five financial reform pilot zones on the regional economy by using the differences-in-differences method.The results show that establishing financial reform pilot area has a positive effect on regional economic growth. Through the robustness test, we draw the following conclusions: Firstly, there exists a time-lag before the financial reform experiment produces effect on the development of regional economy. Generally, it needs four quarters of digestion before the policy begins to take an evident effect; Secondly, there is an obvious inverted U-shaped effect of the financial experimental reform on economic growth. The policy effect is smaller at the early stage, bigger at the medium-term and smaller again at the later stage;Thirdly, the experiment of financial reform is to stimulate economic growth through the promotion effect of tertiary industry in economically developed areas, by the promotion effect of secondary and tertiary industries in economically less developed areas, and by the promotion effect of secondary industry in economically underdeveloped areas.In addition, excessive government intervention in market economy will reduce the efficiency of resource allocation and the vitality of economic development, and the promotion effect of the second and tertiary industries in the pilot area of financial reform with excessive foreign trade participation is not as significant as that in other areas.

Key words: Financial Reform Trials, Upgrading of Industrial Structure, Economic Growth

中图分类号:

F831.2

周立, 雷中豪. 金融试验改革对地区经济增长的影响研究——基于双重差分法(DID)的经验证据[J]. 财经论丛, 2020, 36(4): 43-54.

ZHOU Li, LEI Zhonghao. Study on the Policy Effect of Financial Reform Pilot Zone——An Empirical Study Based on DID Method[J]. , 2020, 36(4): 43-54.

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