关键词: 中美贸易摩擦, GTAP模型, 贸易制裁效果, 后评估

Abstract: This paper applies the GTAP model to simulate the impact of the China-US trade dispute in 2018, and uses the actual data to make a post-evaluation of the effect of trade sanctions, and conducts a prospective simulation of the potential impacts of the escalation of the China-US trade dispute in 2019. The simulation results show that the China-US trade dispute will adversely affect the macroeconomy of China and the United States, while other South American countries such as Argentina, South Korea, Brazil and ASEAN could benefit from it. China is greatly affected in the imports of cereal grains, oilseeds, meat, transport equipment, metal and products thereof, electronic equipment, as well as in the exports of transport equipment and electronic equipment. The results of the post-evaluation show that China's trade sanctions against the exports of soybeans, vehicles and parts and accessories thereof, plastics and products thereof, metal and products thereof, petroleum oil, liquefied natural gas from USA have achieved relatively satisfactory effects. China’s macroeconomy and the import and export of some sectors will be seriously affected after the escalation of the China-US trade dispute in 2019.

Key words: China-US Trade Dispute, GTAP Model, Effect of Trade Sanctions, Post Evaluation