疫情冲击、收入差距与财政政策援助

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2020年突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济造成了极大影响。本文研究了此次新冠肺炎疫情冲击对我国异质性企业就业居民收入差距的影响及其传导机制。研究发现:第一,疫情冲击会使得我国企业的产出、投资、消费和工资下降,然而疫情冲击对劳动密集型企业就业居民收入的负面影响大于对资本密集型企业就业居民收入的影响,使得异质性企业就业居民的收入差距扩大;第二,机制分析发现企业破产概率、劳动边际产出和投资转换能力差异是造成此次疫情冲击对异质性企业就业居民收入影响的根本原因;第三,福利分析发现疫情冲击使得总福利下降,其中劳动密集型企业居民福利损失大于资本密集型企业居民福利损失。政策方面,政府通过对劳动密集型企业和资本密集型企业进行结构性减税、对低收入居民进行工资补贴或发放消费券和鼓励及促进劳动密集型企业进行数字化转型可以有效缓解收入差距的扩大。

关键词: 疫情冲击, 劳动密集型企业, 资本密集型企业, 收入差距

Abstract:

COVID-19 has been developing rapidly in the world. As of October 23, 2020, 210 countries and regions reported confirmed cases. The total number of the confirmed cases in China exceeded 90 thousand. Globally, the total number of the confirmed cases exceeded 42 million, and the total number of deaths worldwide was 1.14 million, with a mortality rate of 2.71%. The Chinese government took effective and strict epidemic prevention measures at the early stage of the outbreak, and the domestic epidemic has been basically controlled. However, the impact of the epidemic disaster has had huge short-term and long-term impacts on China’s economy, which can not be ignored, especially on the income gap of Chinese residents. However, few studies have been conducted on the impact of the sudden COVID-19 disaster on the income distribution of the employed residents in different types of enterprises under the unified stochastic general equilibrium framework and their impact mechanisms. Thus it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of the epidemic disaster on the income gap!

Based on the objective data, this paper first points out the problem of the income gap in different industries in China, which has become more and more serious with the outbreak of the epidemic.It then takes the heterogeneous enterprises and employment sectors into consideration in the benchmark model of RBC stochastic general equilibrium, and introduces the catastrophic impact of the epidemic situation.Thirdly, the parameter calibration and the Bayesian estimation are used to select the parameters involved in the model to highlight the applicability of the model to simulate reality. Furthermore, the dynamic analysis of the impact and the test of the impact mechanism are carried out. Finally, it makes analysis of the welfare and the policy choice in view of the impact of the epidemic.

The main conclusions are as follows. First, the impact of the epidemic disaster will reduce the output, investment, consumption and wages of Chinese enterprises. However, the negative impact of the epidemic on the income of employed residents in labor-intensive enterprises is greater than that in capital-intensive enterprises, which will widen the income gap of employed residents in heterogeneous enterprises. Second, it is found that the probability of bankruptcy, marginal output of labor and the difference of investment conversion ability are the root causes of the impact of the epidemic on the income of residents employed by heterogeneous enterprises. Third, study on the welfare shows that the impact of the epidemic makes the overall welfare decline, and the welfare loss of residents in labor-intensive enterprises is greater than that in capital-intensive enterprises. Fourth, in terms of policy, the government can reduce the structural taxes on labor-intensive enterprises and capital-intensive enterprises, subsidize low-income residents with wages or issue consumption vouchers, and encourage and promote the digital transformation of labor-intensive enterprises, which can effectively alleviate the widening income gap.

The policy recommendations of this paper are as follows:First of all, the structural tax reduction policy should treat the impact of the epidemic on different enterprises differently. The government should give more preferential tax reduction policies to the labor-intensive enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic situation. At the same time, all localities should implement the tax reduction policies in time, so that the labor-intensive enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic situation can resume work and production as soon as possible and the vitality of the main economic body can be restored. Second, appropriate subsidies should be provided or consumption vouchers be issued to the employed residents of labor-intensive enterprises, so as to indirectly improve their income level. In particular, we should increase subsidies to the employed residents of catering, tourism, manufacturing and other industries that are most seriously affected by the epidemic. Third, the government should support and promote the digital transformation of labor-intensive enterprises, and guide enterprises to carry out online office and intelligent services.

Key words: Epidemic Impact, Labor-intensive Enterprises, Capital-intensive Enterprises, Income Gap

中图分类号:

F812
F124.7

赵恢林. 疫情冲击、收入差距与财政政策援助[J]. 财经论丛, 2021, 37(8): 24-37.

ZHAO Huilin. The Impact of Epidemic Disaster, Income Gap and Financial Policy Assistance[J]. Collected Essays on Finance and Economics, 2021, 37(8): 24-37.

图/表 15

图1 我国GDP同比增长速度变化数据来源:笔者根据国家统计局整理。

图2 疫情期间我国整体平均工资变化数据来源:笔者根据水木知行公司数据整理。

图3 理论模型的逻辑框架

表1 参数校准结果

参数	描述	取值	参数	描述	取值
β	贴现因子	0.98	θ	消费替代弹性	1
φ	劳动替代弹性	2	s	资本密集居民比例	0.2
δ	资本折旧率	0.025	ϕ	资本类型效应权重	0.6
$L ¯$	稳态劳动时间	0.33	$G ¯$ / $Y ¯$	稳态财政支出比重	0.2

表1 参数校准结果

参数	描述	取值	参数	描述	取值
β	贴现因子	0.98	θ	消费替代弹性	1
φ	劳动替代弹性	2	s	资本密集居民比例	0.2
δ	资本折旧率	0.025	ϕ	资本类型效应权重	0.6
$L ¯$	稳态劳动时间	0.33	$G ¯$ / $Y ¯$	稳态财政支出比重	0.2

表2 贝叶斯估计结果

参数	变量含义	先验分布			后验分布
参数	变量含义	分布类型	均值	标准差	均值	90%置信区间
α_h	资本密集型企业资本份额	Beta分布	0.5	0.2	0.708	[0.560,0.962]
α_l	劳动密集型企业资本份额	Beta分布	0.5	0.2	0.276	[0.169,0.384]
ρ_θ	疫情冲击自回归系数	Beta分布	0.5	0.2	0.886	[0.859,0.916]
ρ_G	政府支出自回归系数	Inv Gamma分布	0.1	2	0.054	[0.046,0.064]
σ_θ	疫情冲击标准差	Inv Gamma分布	0.1	2	0.027	[0.019,0.032]
σ_G	政府支出冲击标准差	Inv Gamma分布	0.1	2	0.024	[0.012,0.038]

图4 疫情冲击在不同阶段对收入差距的影响注:横轴代表季度,纵轴为偏离稳态百分比。图5、图7以及图9~12同。

图5 不同资本份额下疫情冲击对收入差距的动态影响

图6 疫情冲击对收入差距的影响机制

图7 疫情冲击对异质性企业生存概率的动态影响

图8 疫情冲击对异质性企业劳动力供给和需求的影响

图9 疫情冲击对异质性企业投资的动态影响

表3 疫情冲击变化对异质性企业就业居民的福利影响①

消费补偿	2%	3%	4%
资本密集型企业就业居民的消费补偿	0.30	0.80	1.50
劳动密集型企业就业居民的消费补偿	0.89	2.38	4.48
总消费补偿	0.77	2.06	3.88

图10 结构性减税对企业生存概率和收入差距的影响

图11 面向低收入居民的补贴或者消费券对收入差距的影响

图12 劳动密集型企业投资调节成本冲击对收入差距的影响

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