关键词: 含糖饮料消费税, 需求的价格弹性, 累进性, 理性成瘾, ELES

Abstract: Based on the CHNS data, this paper uses the two-part model and the ELES model to simulate and analyze the feasibility of imposing a consumption tax on sugar-sweetened beverages(SSB) in China from the perspective of regulating income distribution. First of all, the article uses the two-part model to calculate the overall price elasticity of demand for SSB in China as -0.197, while the endogeneity treatment using the sample selection model results in the price elasticity of demand as -0.237. The absolute value of the demand elasticity of SSB for urban residents is smaller than that for rural residents, and the absolute value of the price elasticity of demand for SSB gradually decreases as the income stratum rises. The calculation with the help of the ELES model also concludes that the price elasticity of demand for SSB is characterized by lower elasticity in towns than in rural areas and lower elasticity in high income groups than in lowincome groups. This suggests that if a sugar tax is introduced, residents with higher income levels are taxed more.    Secondly, whether imposing a SSB tax has the progressivity of regulating income distribution should consider whether the after-tax income gap of different income groups is reduced after the tax is imposed. Through the calculation of the tax burden formula, this paper finds that when a single proportional tax rate is adopted and the price is fully transmitted, at least 124% proportional tax must be set to make the Q5 sugar tax burden exceed Q1. With reference to the studies that analyze the income distribution effects of the consumption tax on cigarettes and alcohols, SSB are also divided into two categories and taxed at two different rates: Q4 and Q5 groups which choose to consume more beverages with higher sugar content are taxed at a higher rate of t₂, while Q1, Q2 and Q3 groups which choose to consume more beverages with lower sugar content are taxed at a lower rate of t₁. Assuming that t₁ is set at 20%, the inequality of t₂ can be determined according to the inequality of the tax burden. Combining the data for all available years, the overall t₂ threshold to satisfy the sugar tax progressivity condition is calculated to be 58. 04%. Finally, this paper also demonstrates that the introduction of a sugar tax can help guide healthy consumption and help the government generate significant tax revenues. It suggests that a sugar tax should be introduced at an appropriate time to supplement local tax revenue.

Key words: Taxing Sugar-sweetened Beverages, Price Elasticity of Demand, Progressivity, Rational Addiction, ELES