关键词: 财政纵向失衡, 横向政府竞争, 支出预算不确定性

Abstract: China's fiscal decentralization system is the deep reason that affects the local government expenditure budget uncertainty. Based on the relevant data at the provincial level and prefecture level, this paper discusses the impact of China's fiscal decentralization system on local government expenditure budget uncertainty and its potential mechanism from two aspects of fiscal vertical imbalance and horizontal government competition. It finds that both vertical fiscal imbalance and horizontal government competition exacerbate expenditure budget uncertainty. Mechanism analysis finds that fiscal vertical imbalance intensifies expenditure budget uncertainty mainly by influencing local governments' dependence on transfer payments, and the uncertainty of transfer payments will expand this effect. The main channel through which horizontal government competition aggravates expenditure budget uncertainty is the underestimation of local governments' own financial resources. Finally, with regard to the size of the impact effect, the impact of vertical fiscal imbalance at the prefecture level is higher than that at the provincial level, but horizontal government competition has a greater impact on provincial level.

Key words: Fiscal Vertical Imbalance, Horizontal Government Competition, Expenditure Budget Uncertainty