财经论丛 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 28-38.

• 数字经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

人工智能如何降低供应链风险?——基于微观机制与溢出效应的检验

董萍1,2   

  1. 1.中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京 100006;
    2.中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京 102488
  • 收稿日期:2025-12-05 发布日期:2026-05-09
  • 作者简介:董萍(1980—),女,河北邢台人,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院编辑,中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院博士生。

How Does Artificial Intelligence Development Reduce Corporate Supply Chain Risks: An Examination of Micro-mechanisms and Spillover Effects

DONG Ping1,2   

  1. 1. National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100006, China;
    2. Faculty of Applied Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488, China
  • Received:2025-12-05 Published:2026-05-09

摘要: 在全球供应链不确定性日益加剧的背景下,人工智能发展为企业前瞻性地识别、评估与应对供应链风险开辟了新路径。本文基于2007—2023年中国上市公司数据,构建双向固定效应模型,实证检验人工智能对企业供应链风险的影响。研究显示,第一,人工智能对企业供应链总体风险、外部风险与内部风险均存在显著的抑制作用;第二,机制检验表明,供应链效率升级、多元突破与合作深化是人工智能抑制企业供应链风险的重要渠道。进一步研究发现,人工智能通过技术溢出效应与风险传染效应,有效降低了上下游关联企业的供应链风险水平。本文为政府推动人工智能与实体经济深度融合、构建自主可控的现代化供应链体系提供了重要政策启示。

关键词: 人工智能, 供应链风险, 溢出效应, 风险传染效应

Abstract: Against the backdrop of growing uncertainty in global supply chains, artificial intelligence has opened up new pathways for enterprises to proactively identify, assess, and respond to supply chain risks. Based on the data from the listed companies in China from 2007 to 2023, this paper constructs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically examine the impact of AI on corporate supply chain risks. The findings are as follows. First, AI significantly suppresses overall supply chain risks, as well as external and internal risks. Second, the mechanism tests indicate that supply chain efficiency enhancement, supply chain diversification breakthroughs, improvement in corporate transparency, and deepening of supply chain cooperation serve as the most important channels through which artificial intelligence suppresses corporate supply chain risks. Further research finds that AI effectively reduces the supply chain risk levels of upstream-related and downstream-related enterprises through technology spillover effects and risk contagion effects. The conclusions of this study provide important policy insights for governments in promoting the deep integration of AI with the real economy and building a self-reliant and controllable modern supply chain system.

Key words: Artificial Intelligence, Supply Chain Risk, Supply Chain Spillover Effect, Risk Contagion Effect

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