关键词: 税收征管, 长期投资, 耐心资本, 预期, 成本

Abstract: As an important external institutional factor to influence corporate investment decisions, the stability and certainty of the tax environment play a significant role in cultivating and strengthening patient capital. Based on data from A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010 to 2023, this paper takes the implementation of the discretionary benchmark for tax administrative penalties as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the empowering effect and influencing mechanism of tax collection and administration certainty on patient capital from the perspective of corporate long-term investment. The findings reveal that tax administration certainty significantly promotes corporate long-term investment. Mechanism tests indicate that tax administration certainty fosters long-term investment by enhancing corporate expectations and reducing the burden of corporate cost. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the promoting effect of tax administration certainty on corporate long-term investment varies because of different firm levels and regional characteristics. Specifically, the effect is more pronounced in firms with strong managerial myopia, non-state-owned enterprises, and those located in regions with intensive law enforcement or strong government intervention. The conclusions of this study provide empirical evidence and policy implications for standardizing tax administration practices, stabilizing corporate expectations, and cultivating patient capital.

Key words: Tax Administration, Long-Term Investment, Patient Capital, Expectations, Corporate Cost