关键词: 税收分成, 地方财力, 经济效应, 福利效应

Abstract: With changes in local finance after the implementation of “The Adjustment Plan of the VAT Revenue between Central and Local Governments after the Comprehensive Implementation of the Pilot Project to Replace Business Tax with VAT”, this paper studies the economic and welfare effects of the adjustment of tax sharing ratio between the central and local governments by constructing a deterministic dynamic general equilibrium model which includes two regions. The results of the study are as follows. Increasing the tax sharing of local governments can increase the tax revenue of the two regions, and the increase in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western region. It also has a positive effect on both the output and the consumption, while crowding out the business investment and reducing the welfare level of residents. Welfare's counterfactual analysis futher indicates that the higher the residents' preference for local government expenditure is, the more the growth in the proportion of local government tax sharing will be to improve residents' welfare. The results of this paper imply that when adjusting the tax sharing ratio, the government should take residents' preference into full account and promote the coordinated reform of administrative duty and expenditure responsibility, local tax construction and transfer payment system.

Key words: Tax Sharing, Local Governmental Financial Resources, Economic Effects, Welfare Effects