关键词: 新质生产力, 财政可持续性, 耦合协调, 空间溢出效应, “能力-状态-行为”三维框架

Abstract: Against the backdrop of coordinating high-quality development and national security, exploring the synergistic evolution of new quality productivity and fiscal sustainability is a critical issue for addressing the dual challenges of development and security. This study constructs a threedimensional fiscal analytical framework of “Capability-State-Behavior” to systematically explain the interactive relationship between the two. Based on panel data from 282 Chinese cities over the period from 2011 to 2023, it comprehensively employs the coupling coordination degree model, the spatial Durbin model, and the threshold regression model to empirically examine the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, spatial spillover effects, and driving mechanisms of their coordinated development. The findings reveal that there exists a significant coupling coordination relationship between the two; their coupling coordination degree exhibits a fluctuating upward trend overall, accompanied by a notable positive spatial spillover effect, yet regional imbalance remains pronounced. In terms of driving factors, the enhancing effect of government intervention on the coordination degree presents a Jshaped increasing pattern as economic development levels rise, whereas the suppressing effect of fiscal pressure diminishes marginally with economic advancement. Both government intervention and fiscal pressure show significant heterogeneity in their impacts across regions and city types. This paper provides a theoretical foundation and decisionmaking reference for optimizing fiscal policies and fostering new quality productivity according to local conditions under the overarching goal of coordinating development and security.

Key words: New Quality Productivity, Fiscal Sustainability, Coupling Coordination, Spatial Spillover Effects, “Capability-State-Behaviour” Three-Dimensional Framework