Abstract: It is an empirical issue to analyse relative trade-neutrality of VAT under all real conditions . Taking into account exchangde rate and informal economy, this paper conducts empirical research by VAR model,and trade-neutrality of VAT which is the empirical rule in developed countries is tested for developing countries．Based on the multinational data from 1994 to 2012 ，the empirical results show that in the developing countries there is also relative trade-neutrality of VAT, informal economy can explain the existence of trade effect to some extent. Considering China's special national situations, this paper uses multivariate time series data of China from 1990 to 2012.The empirical analysis shows that VAT has some a negative impact on exports trade,and there is no signficantly relative trade-neutrality.