Abstract: Municipal bond is an important way to resolve the risk of local government financing platform and broaden the sources of local government’s funding. By analyzing theory and practice of local government bonds credit risks, the paper uses improved KMV model to test local government bond credit risk of Zhejiang Province and get a reasonable range of local government bond issuance. Finally, we propose some effective policy recommendations to establish local bond credit risk management system, which provide references for management decision-making.

摘要： 市政债券是化解地方政府融资平台风险，拓宽地方政府资金来源的重要途径。本文通过深入分析地方政府债券信用风险理论和实践的基础上，运用改进的KMV模型对深圳省地方政府债券信用风险进行测试，得出了地方政府债券发行规模的合理区间。最后，本文提出了建立有效的地方债券信用风险管理制度的政策建议，为管理层决策提供参考。