Abstract: To verify the nonlinear effects that fiscal policies exert on the level of resident consumption, this paper inspects the changes of the effect that Chinese financial policy influence the level of resident consumption when the third-party external factor (the income gap between urban and rural areas) differentiates. The conclusion of the panel threshold econometric model show that in the piecewise function of fiscal policies and the level of resident consumption, which is constructed on the base of the income gap threshold as an external variable, the optimal interval of the income gap absolute value with regard of tax burdens and the financial expenditure scale could promote the level of resident consumption is 4015 to 7016 RMB and 7912 to 10323 RMB respectively. Similarly, the optimal interval of the income gap relative value with regard of tax construction and the financial expenditure structure could boost the level of resident consumption is 0.126 to 0.171 and 0.127 to 0.172 respectively. Therefore, we should dialectically look upon the effect that fiscal policies exert on the level of resident consumption. That is, fiscal policies would generate neither absolute positive influence nor absolute negative influence on the level of resident consumption. The influence depends more on the effects of external factors. The key point to promote the level of resident consumption in China is the reasonable design and implementation of financial and tax policies.

摘要： 为了验证财政政策对居民消费水平效应的非线性效应，文章考察了因第三方外部因素(城乡收入差距)存在差异时，中国财税政策对居民消费水平影响效应的变化情况。面板门槛计量模型研究发现以城乡收入差距门槛值作为外生变量构建的财税政策影响居民消费水平的分段函数中，对于税收负担和财政支出规模促进居民消费水平的城乡收入差距绝对数最优区间分别为4015元—7016元和7912元—10323元；对于税收结构和财政支出结构促进居民消费水平的城乡收入差距相对数最优区间分别为0.126—0.171和0.127—0.172。因此，应当辩证看待政府财税政策对居民消费水平的影响，即财政政策对居民消费水平既不会产生绝对的正面影响，也不会产生绝对的负向影响，其影响结果更多地取决于第三方外部因素的影响。促进我国居民消费水平的关键点在于财税政策的合理制定与实施。