Abstract:

Using the more recently developed panel threshold regression models, this paper investigates this nonlinear relationship between Pricing to market (PTM) of export prices on industry level and concentration ration of industry and nonlinear relationship between Pricing to market (PTM) of export prices on industry level and export tax rebates under two different economic backgrounds. The results of the study include the following four points. At first, PTM which is before financial crisis is different from PTM which is after financial crisis. Secondly, in terms of industry concentration, industry concentration always exercises a great influence on PTM under different economic backgrounds, and there is a nonlinear relationship between PTM and industry concentration under different economic backgrounds. Thirdly, In terms of export tax rebates, there is neither linear nor nonlinear relationship between PTM and export tax rebates before financial crisis while export tax refund has significant effects on PTM after financial crisis. There is a threshold effect between PTM and export tax refund after financial crisis. Finally, Compared with the export tax rebate, industry concentration has more significant effect on PTM. In the end, this paper points out the policy implications of this conclusion.

摘要：

近来随着经济新常态的出现以及出口的疲态，应用财政政策（包括出口退税等）来支持出口的呼声也越来越多。基于此，本文以金融危机前后曾经出现过的出口退税较大调整作为背景，并比较考察了出口集中度因素，应用面板平滑转换模型（PSTR）对出口行业“盯市”（PTM）程度和出口退税、行业集中度之间的关系展开了研究，结果表明：（1）就行业集中度而言，其无论在危机前还是危机后始终对出口行业的PTM行为产生影响，且均与PTM存在着平滑转变的非线性关系。（2）而出口退税只是在危机后的大幅提升后才对PTM影响显著，这种影响表现为突变的快速向下的门限效应，而危机前（相对较低的）其对PTM并无影响。（3）与出口退税相比，行业集中度对PTM的影响虽非立竿见影但却是缓慢且持久的。论文的最后还讨论了上述结论蕴含的较为丰富的政策含义。