Abstract: Assessment of local government debt capacity is important to avoid debt default, furthermore, as local debt is classified as general and special debt, its corresponding classified evaluation should be conducted. By using entropy method, quantitative evaluation of debt capacity of 30 provinces from 2010 to 2014 in China and the corresponding general and special debt capacity in 2014 are conducted, results show that, the eastern province is relatively high, followed in the west and mid minimum; at the same time, for the difference between provinces, the east is the largest, second in the west and mid minimum; and general debt is slightly higher than special debt which is more obvious difference between provinces. Therefore, we should focus on key areas, pay more attention to special debt risk, and promote its space equilibrium.

Key words: Local Government Debt, Debt Capacity, Entropy Method, Spatial Pattern

摘要： 对地方政府偿债能力的准确评估关系到债务风险的有效防范和债务限额的合理分配,而在地方债务分类为一般债务和专项债务之后,迫切需要进行相应的分类评估。本文利用熵值法,量化评估了我国30个省份2010~2014年的偿债能力以及2014年的一般和专项债务偿债能力,结果显示,整体而言,东部省份的偿债能力相对最高,西部次之,中部最低;同时省份之间的差别,东部最大,西部次之,中部最小;一般债务要略高于专项债务,并且后者在省份间的差异更为明显。因此,对于地方债务风险的防范要关注重点区域,更加重视预警和管控专项债务风险,同时促进债务分布的空间均衡。

关键词: 地方债务, 偿债能力, 熵值法, 空间格局