The Mystery of Tax Growth: From the Perspective of Industrial Structure Optimization

Abstract

Abstract: Tax revenue growth is the focus of macroscopic public finance theory research.Since the reform of the tax system, China's tax revenue has been showing a trend of rapid growth, which has already been studied by scholars from different dimensions. Based on the data decomposition of the source and composition of macro tax burden, using China's 1995~2014 provincial panel data and the PVAR method,this paper offers an explanation of the growth heterogeneity of different types of taxation in China from the perspective of industry's structural adjustment.The empirical results show that the evolution of industrial structure has a long-term and significant impact on tax revenue growth, and the government's general budget income has a negative effect on the growth of turnover tax revenue, but a positive effect on the income tax increase. The significance of this paper is to provide a new theoretical perspective to reveal the inherent law of different types of tax growth mechanism in China from the perspective of industrial structure upgrading.

Key words: Revenue Growth, Industrial Upgrading, PVAR, Industrial Structure

摘要： 税收增长是宏观公共财政理论研究的重点议题。分税制改革以来,我国税收一直呈现高速增长态势,过往学者从多维度对这一现象提供了解释。本文在对宏观税负的来源和构成进行数据分解基础上,采用我国1995~2014年省级面板数据,运用PVAR方法,为中国不同类别税收的增长异质性提供产业结构调整层面上的解释。实证结果表明:产业结构升级演进对税收增长有着长期显著的影响,提高了政府一般预算收入,对流转税收入增长具有负向作用,但对所得税收入增长具有正向作用。本文的意义在于从产业结构升级的视角,为揭示我国不同类别税收增长机制的内在规律提供新的理论视角。

关键词: 税收增长, 产业升级, PVAR, 产业结构

CLC Number:

F812.42

SUN Zheng. The Mystery of Tax Growth: From the Perspective of Industrial Structure Optimization[J]. , 2017, 33(7): 39-48.

孙正. 税收增长之谜:基于产业结构升级演进的视角[J]. 财经论丛, 2017, 33(7): 39-48.

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