Abstract: Based on a panel database of China and its 136 agricultural trading countries from 2001 to 2015, this paper adopts DID and PSM-DID methods to empirically analyze the relationship between FTA and import volatility and uses the mediating effect model to test the mechanism of FTA influencing the import fluctuation. The results show that FTA promotes the import of China's agricultural products and at the same time, also increases the level of import volatility. After changing the measurement method of import fluctuation, adopting a different matching method, eliminating the samples with the greatest influence and distinguishing bilateral and multilateral FTA, further test still generates the same results. When the mediating effect model is used to test the mechanism, it is found that the Chinese FTA strategy indeed increases the import fluctuation by reducing the import trade cost, improveing the intensive margin and reducing the extensive margin.

Key words: FTA, Import Volatility, Agricultural Product, DID, PSM-DID

摘要： 本文使用2001~2015年我国与136个农产品贸易国家或地区的面板数据,采用DID和PSM-DID方法,实证分析我国FTA战略的实施对进口波动的影响,并利用中介效应模型检验FTA对进口波动的作用机制。研究结果发现,FTA在促进我国农产品进口增长的同时加剧了进口波动;改变进口波动的测度方法、采用不同的匹配方法、剔除影响最大的样本、区分不同类型的FTA再进行检验,结果均稳健;在中介效应模型检验中,FTA通过降低贸易成本、提高集约边际和降低扩展边际三个渠道,最终增加了我国农产品进口波动。

关键词: FTA, 进口波动, 农产品, DID, PSM-DID