Abstract: The establishment of a budget stabilization adjustment fund in China is mainly to achieve orderly management of fiscal overpayments, make up for deficits, and meet the needs of cross-year budget balance. This paper analyzes the interannual rate of change, regional differences, and supplementary transfers of the budget stabilization adjustment funds of the central and provincial governments from 1994 to 2018, and based on the perspective of cross-year budget balance, simulates and calculates different rolling cross-annual budget balance rate for all levels of government and different provinces during the cycle. The article finds that the budget stabilization adjustment fund has played a certain role in the correction of central fiscal revenue and expenditure deviations and local income deviations, and has also improved the balance rate of the fiscal rolling inter-annual budget. The best cycle for most provincial governments to achieve the balance of the fiscal rolling inter-annual budget is 3 years. This article also calls attention to the existence of such problems as obvious regional differences in fund sizes, unstable funding sources, imperfect inter-annual budget balance mechanisms and excessively large amount of idle and sedimentary surplus funds and tries to improve the budget stabilization adjustment fund system from three aspects of adjusting the fund scale, perfecting the medium-term budget and enancing the cross-year budget balance and performance management.

Key words: Budget Stabilization Adjustment Fund, Fiscal Adjustment, Cross-year Budget Balance Mechanism

摘要： 中国建立预算稳定调节基金,主要是为了实现对财政超收的有序管理、弥补赤字、满足跨年度预算平衡的需要。本文利用1994～2018年财政预决算数据,分析了中央和各省级政府预算稳定调节基金的年际变化率、区域差异、补充调入情况等,并基于跨年度预算平衡的视角,模拟测算了不同周期内各层级政府及不同省份的滚动跨年度预算平衡率。本文发现,预算稳定调节基金对于中央财政收支偏离和地方收入偏离的修正发挥了一定的作用,也提升了财政滚动跨年度预算的平衡率;而大多数省级政府实现滚动跨年度预算平衡的最佳周期为3年。本文还发现区域间基金规模差异明显、资金来源不稳定、跨年度预算平衡机制尚待健全、结余基金闲置沉淀等问题,并尝试从调整基金规模、健全中期预算与跨年度预算平衡的衔接、绩效管理这三个方面健全预算稳定调节基金制度。

关键词: 预算稳定调节基金, 财政调节, 跨年度预算平衡机制