Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of the MD&A tone in the annual report on listed firms’ long-term credit ratings, and examines whether credit rating agencies can identify the tone management. The results of the study are as follows: (1) Credit rating agencies do use the MD&A tone. The more positive the MD&A tone is, the better the long-term credit rating will be. (2) Although the coefficient difference test shows that the normal tone has a greater impact on credit ratings, both the normal tone and the abnormal tone have a significant impact on credit ratings, indicating that credit rating agencies have not fully recognized the tone management. The above findings provide useful enlightenment for credit rating agencies to effectively exploit and rationally utilize the firms’ text information and to prudently judge the MD&A tone management.

Key words: Credit Ratings, MD&A Tone, Text Information, Tone Management

摘要：

本文研究上市公司年报中“管理层讨论与分析”部分的语调对长期信用评级的影响,并检验信用评级机构能否识别管理层的语调操纵行为。研究发现:信用评级机构在评级过程中利用了管理层语调信息,管理层语调越积极,发债公司长期信用评级越好;虽然系数差异检验表明正常语调对信用评级的影响更大,但无论是管理层正常语调还是异常语调都显著影响了信用评级结果,表明信用评级机构没有完全识别出管理层语调信息中的操纵部分。上述发现为信用评级机构有效发掘并合理利用发债公司年报中的文本信息以及谨慎地判断管理层的语言粉饰行为提供了有益的启示。

关键词: 信用评级, 管理层语调, 文本信息, 管理层语调操纵