Abstract: Under the accelerating global industrial chain restructuring and heightened domestic fiscal risk control, this paper employs a two-way fixed effects model to analyze the impact of local government debt on industry chain linkage using data from listed companies from 2010 to 2023. The study finds that debt expansion significantly inhibits industry chain linkage. Mechanism tests show that the debt affects the linkage through financing constraints, resource allocation distortion, and collaboration cost saving, with the negative effects of the first two dominating. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that these adverse effects are mainly evident in manufacturing firms, sectors not prioritized for debt allocation, and cities with high fiscal self-sufficiency or those in the east. Accordingly, this paper proposes policy recommendations including controlling debt scale, reducing risk transmission and leveraging debt's positive effects to foster stable industry chain development.

Key words: Local Government Debt, Industry Chain Linkage, Financing Constraints, Resource Allocation, Collaboration Cost

摘要： 在全球产业链加速重构与国内财政风险防控升级的背景下,本文利用2010—2023年上市公司数据,运用双向固定效应模型实证分析了地方政府债务对产业链关联的影响。研究发现,地方政府债务扩张显著抑制了产业链关联。机制检验表明,地方政府债务扩张通过融资约束、资源配置扭曲与协作成本节约效应三条路径影响产业链关联,其中融资约束与资源配置扭曲的负向效应占主导地位。异质性分析显示,上述负向作用主要存在于制造业企业、非政府债务重点投向行业企业、所在城市财政自给能力高的企业以及东部城市企业。基于以上结论,本文从管控债务规模、降低债务风险传导和释放债务正向作用等方面提出政策建议,以促进产业链协同稳定发展。

关键词: 地方政府债务, 产业链关联, 融资约束, 资源配置, 协作成本