关键词: 财政可持续, 中等城市, 协整检验

Abstract:

Medium-sized cities are the important carriers to undertake industrialization and urbanization of our country in the future, playing an important role in the modernization strategy.Based on the government's inter-temporal budget constraint theoretical framework, this article makes panel cointegration analysis of the revenue and expenditure data of medium-sized cities from 2003 to 2013.The empirical results show that there is long-term cointegration relationship between medium-sized cities' fiscal revenues and expenditures, but sustainability is weak.Then it is concluded that the unreasonable transfer payment system, the growing input of people's livelihood and the vast scale of local government's debt have a significant influence on the imbalance between revenues and expenditures.They are the main risk factors causing weak fiscal sustainability

Key words: fiscal sustainability, medium-sized cities, cointegration test