最低工资制度对非正规就业的影响研究——来自中国省级动态面板数据的证据

财经论丛 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (10): 12-20.

最低工资制度对非正规就业的影响研究——来自中国省级动态面板数据的证据

张剑¹, 王玉峰¹, 周子琪²

1.四川农业大学经济学院,四川成都 611830;
2.复旦大学管理学院,上海 200433

收稿日期:2018-05-21 出版日期:2019-10-10 发布日期:2019-10-09
作者简介:张剑(1983-),男,四川成都人,四川农业大学经济学院讲师;王玉峰(1978-),男,四川成都人,四川农业大学经济学院教授;周子琪(1997-),女,四川成都人,复旦大学管理学院硕士生。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603177);四川省软科学计划重点项目(2017ZR0013)

A Study on the Mechanism of the Impact of the Minimum Wage on Employment——Evidence from China's Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

ZHANG Jian¹, WANG Yufeng¹, ZHOU Ziqi²

1.School of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611830, China;
2.School of Management, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China

Received:2018-05-21 Online:2019-10-10 Published:2019-10-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文结合我国实际情况,对买方垄断特征下的劳动力市场供求关系进行理论分析,采用各省份2008~2016年最低工资数据匹配“其他就业人员”指标,通过静态和动态模型回归,发现最低工资标准的上调提升城市的非正规就业水平。对不同行业而言,最低工资上涨的就业创造和消失存在一定的异质性。为解决可能存在的样本选择偏误及政策内生性问题,本文将重庆市作为处理组,采用合成控制法构造“反事实”状态,客观评估最低工资调整的政策效果,并通过安慰剂试验进行稳健性检验,再次验证最低工资提高的就业创造效应。

关键词: 最低工资制度, 非正规就业效应, 合成控制法, 动态面板

Abstract: In order to explore how the minimum wage standard affects the level of employment, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the relationship between supply and demand in the labor market monopolized by buyers and uses the minimum wage data of the provinces in 2008-2016 to match the employment index data. Through static and dynamic regression analysis, it is found that the raise of the minimum wage level will promote the level of informal employment in cities. For different industries, there is a certain heterogeneity in the employment creation and disappearance of the minimum wage increase. In addition, in order to solve the possible sample selection errors and policy endogenous problems, we take Chongqing as a treatment group, construct a counter factual state by using the synthetic control method, evaluate the policy effect of the adjustment of the minimum wage objectively and verify the increase of the minimum wage again through the robustness test of the placebo test.

Key words: Minimum Wage, Employment, Synthetic Control Method, Dynamic Panel

中图分类号:

F244.2

张剑, 王玉峰, 周子琪. 最低工资制度对非正规就业的影响研究——来自中国省级动态面板数据的证据[J]. 财经论丛, 2019, 35(10): 12-20.

ZHANG Jian, WANG Yufeng, ZHOU Ziqi. A Study on the Mechanism of the Impact of the Minimum Wage on Employment——Evidence from China's Provincial Dynamic Panel Data[J]. , 2019, 35(10): 12-20.

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