财经论丛 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 54-62.

• 金融与投资 • 上一篇    下一篇

实际汇率政策对经济增长的影响研究综述:发展历史与演进逻辑

巴曙松1,2,3,4,胡君1   

  1. 1.云南大学发展研究院,云南 昆明 650091;
    2.北京大学汇丰商学院,广东 深圳 518055;
    3.中国银行业协会,北京 100033;
    4.香港交易所,香港 999077
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-18 出版日期:2019-03-10 发布日期:2019-03-11
  • 作者简介:巴曙松(1969-),男,湖北武汉人,云南大学发展研究院教授,博士生导师,北京大学汇丰商学院教授,中国银行业协会首席经济学家,香港交易所首席中国经济学家;胡君(1990-),女,安徽池州人,云南大学发展研究院博士生。
  • 基金资助:
    社会科学理论创新高地建设项目(C176240103);国家自然科学基金项目(71863036);教育部人文社科基金项目(YB2017095)

A Literature Review of the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Policy on Economic Growth:
History and Logical Evolution

BA Shusong1,2,3,4, HU Jun1   

  1. 1.School of Development Studies,Yunnan University, Kunming 650091,China;
    2. HSBC Business School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China;
    3. China Banking Association,Beijing 100033, China;
    4. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, Hong Kong 999077, China
  • Received:2018-10-18 Online:2019-03-10 Published:2019-03-11

摘要: 开放经济中一国如何制定实际汇率政策来促进经济增长是经济发展中的重要问题。本文从竞争性与稳定性实际汇率政策的发展历史与演变逻辑出发,分三个历史时期梳理了近年来关于实际汇率政策与经济增长的理论与经验研究。二战后的东亚经验表明,出口导向型国家通过实际汇率低估的竞争性政策实现了贸易部门扩张与经济增长;后金融危机时期的汇率波动也在很大程度上影响一国的汇率政策选择,亚洲金融危机以及次贷危机都显示,维持稳定实际汇率更有利于发展中国家的经济增长;新时期,考虑到全球经济转型的发展趋势,实际汇率政策制定还将考虑增长转型与扩大开放的双重背景,构建一个兼顾竞争性与稳定性的新实际汇率政策框架是促进经济持续稳定增长的重要保证,而相应的产业政策制定与资本账户管制将成为新时期实际汇率政策的配套条件。

关键词: 实际汇率政策, 经济增长, 竞争性, 稳定性

Abstract: How to make an appropriate real exchange rate policy to promote the economic growth in an open economy is an important issue in the process of economic development. From the perspective of its development history and evolution logic, the real exchange rate policy is particularly important for the economic growth of developing countries, and its influence can be divided into three important historical periods. East Asian experience after the second world war shows that export-oriented countries could achieve trade sector expansion and economic growth through competitive policies of undervalued real exchange rates. On the other hand, some countries in Africa and South America relied too much on natural resources and restrained the development of other tradable non-natural resources sectors, which eventually led to overvaluation of exchange rates and “resource curse”. Exchange rate fluctuations in the post-financial crisis period have also affected a country's exchange rate policy choice to a large extent. Both the Asian financial crisis and the subprime crisis have shown that maintaining a stable real exchange rate is more conducive to the economic growth of developing countries. In the new period, considering the development trend of global economic transformation, it is necessay to take into consideration the dual background of the economic growth and the expansion of opening-up when formulating the real exchange rate policy. Building a new real exchange rate policy framework, which takes into account both competitiveness and stability, is the important guarantee of promoting a sustainable and stable economic growth, and the corresponding industry policy making and the capital account control are complementary conditions for for the real exchange rate policy in the new period.

Key words: Real Exchange Rate Policy, Economic Growth, Competitiveness, Stability

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