土地财政、适应性预期与房价棘轮效应:基于空间溢出视角

财经论丛 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (9): 22-32.

土地财政、适应性预期与房价棘轮效应:基于空间溢出视角

孙超¹, 唐云锋², 薛婕³

1.山东大学经济学院,山东济南 250100;
2.浙江财经大学财政税务学院,浙江杭州 310018;
3.曲阜师范大学经济学院,山东日照 273165

收稿日期:2019-07-11 出版日期:2020-09-10 发布日期:2020-09-27
作者简介:孙超(1995-),男,山东泰安人,山东大学经济学院博士生;唐云锋(1971-),男,湖南祁阳人,浙江财经大学财政税务学院教授,博士生导师;薛婕(1995-),女,山东青岛人,曲阜师范大学经济学院硕士生,通讯作者。
基金资助:
国家社科基金项目(18BJY209)

Land Finance, Adaptive Expectations and House Price Ratcheting Effect: Based on Space Analysis of Spillover Perspective

SUN Chao¹, TANG Yunfeng², XUE Jie³

1. School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;
2. School of Finance and Taxation, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China;
3. School of Economics, Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 273165,China

Received:2019-07-11 Online:2020-09-10 Published:2020-09-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文从理论上剖析了土地财政、适应性预期引致房价棘轮效应的作用机制及其空间特征,使用极大似然估计和系统GMM等方法对其空间杜宾模型进行房价棘轮效应的驱动因素分解,并从更换空间权重矩阵和变量度量指标的双重维度进行稳健性检验;进一步地,从土地财政的制度视角,使用中介效应模型识别垄断供给的土地管理制度下土地财政影响房价的中间变量。研究发现:土地财政对房价的直接效应及其通过地价的中介效应显著推动了房价上涨,地价与房价形成互相驱动的正反馈机制,使地方政府内生出维持房价棘轮效应的内在激励和路径依赖;房价存在显著的空间溢出效应,土地财政通过“示范效应”和影响本地房价的路径对邻近地区房价产生正向溢出效应,但这种溢出效应较为微弱;房价上涨适应性预期显著推动了房价持续上涨,并强化了房价棘轮效应。以上发现对于优化地方政府土地管理模式和引导全域性房价正常波动具有一定的理论和政策启示。

关键词: 房价棘轮效应, 土地财政, 适应性预期, 空间溢出效应

Abstract: This paper theoretically analyzes the mechanism and spatial characteristics of the ratchet effect caused by the land finance and the adaptive expectation, and uses the methods of maximum likelihood estimation and system GMM to decompose the driving factors of the house price ratchet effect, and carries on the robustness test from the double dimension of changing the spatial weight matrix and the variable measure index. It is found that the direct effect of the land finance on the house price and the intermediary effect of the land price significantly push up the rise of the house price, and, the land price and the house price form a mutually driven positive feedback mechanism, so that the local government has the inner incentive and the path dependence of maintaining the price ratchet effect of the house price. The house price has a remarkable spatial overflow effect, and the land finance has a positive spillover effect on the house prices in neighboring areas by means of the “model effect” of the land transfer and the path to influence local house prices, but the spillover effect is weak. The adaptability of housing prices is expected to significantly contribute to the continued rise in housing prices and to strengthen the housing price ratchet effect. The above findings have some theoretical and policy implications for optimizing the local government land management mode and guiding the normal fluctuation of the whole house price.

Key words: House Price Ratchet Effect, Land Finance, Adaptive Expectation, Spatial Spillover Effect

中图分类号:

F812.7

孙超, 唐云锋, 薛婕. 土地财政、适应性预期与房价棘轮效应:基于空间溢出视角[J]. 财经论丛, 2020, 36(9): 22-32.

SUN Chao, TANG Yunfeng, XUE Jie. Land Finance, Adaptive Expectations and House Price Ratcheting Effect: Based on Space Analysis of Spillover Perspective[J]. , 2020, 36(9): 22-32.

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