财政金融政策对文化产业发展有空间异质性影响吗?——来自空间动态面板门槛的估计

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

现代服务业已经成为各地方政府重点发展战略之一,但由于不同地区产业转型升级的阶段不同,地方政府实施的财税政策效果存在明显差异。本文分别采用动态空间计量估计和动态面板门槛估计方法,实证检验了文化财政支出、文化金融政策与文化产业发展区域异质性机制。研究发现,我国不同区域文化方面所实施的财税政策存在明显的竞争性,其竞争过程也产生策略互动,即地方政府会策略性选择文化产业发展程度接近的地区。进一步,财政金融政策对地方文化产业发展的效果取决于当地人均产出:若地区人均产出较高,财政金融政策的正向影响显著;相反地,若地区人均产出处于较低水平时,政策效果并不显著。除了本地区政策之外,邻近地区财政金融政策对本地文化产业发展也有推动作用。

关键词: 财政支出, 金融发展, 文化产业

Abstract:

Modern service industry has become one of the key development strategies of local governments. However, due to the different stages of industrial transformation and upgrading in different regions, the effect of fiscal and tax policies implemented by local governments is obviously different. This paper uses dynamic spatial econometric estimation and dynamic panel threshold estimation to empirically test the regional heterogeneity mechanism of cultural financial expenditure, cultural financial policy and cultural industry development. It is found that the fiscal and tax policies implemented by different regional cultures in China are obviously competitive, and the competition process also produces strategic interaction, that is, local governments will strategically select regions with similar development degree of cultural industry. Furthermore, the effect of fiscal and financial policies on the development of local cultural industry depends on the regional per capita output. If the regional per capita output is high, the positive impact of fiscal and financial policy is significant and constantly increasing. On the contrary, when the regional per capita output is at a low level, the effect of the policy is not significant. In addition, in addition to the local policies, the fiscal and financial policies in neighboring regions also promote the development of local cultural industries.

Key words: Financial Expenditure, Financial Development, Cultural Industry

中图分类号:

F810

杨洁, 王耀中, 胡尊国. 财政金融政策对文化产业发展有空间异质性影响吗?——来自空间动态面板门槛的估计[J]. 财经论丛, 2021, 37(10): 25-34.

YANG Jie, WANG Yaozhong, HU Zunguo. Does Financial Policy Have Spatial Heterogeneity Impact on Development of Cultural Industry? Threshold Estimation from Spatial Dynamic Panel[J]. Collected Essays on Finance and Economics, 2021, 37(10): 25-34.

图/表 7

参考文献 21

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变量	样本数	单位	均值	最小值	最大值	标准差
cul	434	千个	8.60	4.81	81.98	5.47
fis	434	亿元	54.60	2.89	44.29	44.29
fin	434	%	9.25	5.12	11.74	1.18
ey	434	万元	3.65	0.42	12.90	2.42
hum	434	年	0.96	0.60	1.31	0.13
open	434	%	0.35	0.01	2.14	0.44
urb	434	%	0.50	0.21	0.89	0.15

变量	样本数	单位	均值	最小值	最大值	标准差
cul	434	千个	8.60	4.81	81.98	5.47
fis	434	亿元	54.60	2.89	44.29	44.29
fin	434	%	9.25	5.12	11.74	1.18
ey	434	万元	3.65	0.42	12.90	2.42
hum	434	年	0.96	0.60	1.31	0.13
open	434	%	0.35	0.01	2.14	0.44
urb	434	%	0.50	0.21	0.89	0.15

模型变量	SDM模型		DSDM模型
模型变量	模型I	模型II	模型III	模型IV
cul_it_-1			0.821^***	0.806^***
cul_it_-1			(0.022)	(0.022)
fis_it	0.153^***	0.137^***	0.012^*	0.054^*
fis_it	(0.037)	(0.032)	(0.011)	(0.013)
fin_it	0.272^***	0.268^***	0.058^***	0.056^***
fin_it	(0.038)	(0.039)	(0.018)	(0.020)
ey_it	0.041^***	0.050^***	0.026^***	0.027^***
ey_it	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.008)	(0.008)
hum_it	0.215^**	0.147^*	0.114^**	0.111^**
hum_it	(0.095)	(0.081)	(0.055)	(0.053)
open_it	0.020^*	0.032^*	0.020^*	0.031^*
open_it	(0.019)	(0.036)	(0.016)	(0.017)
urb_it	0.437^***	0.476^***	0.115^**	0.132^***
urb_it	(0.124)	(0.101)	(0.042)	(0.046)
W×fis_it	0.150^*	0.157^**	0.091^***	0.083^**
W×fis_it	(0.083)	(0.080)	(0.035)	(0.039)
W×fin_it	0.262^***	0.261^***	0.140^***	0.102^***
W×fin_it	(0.057)	(0.053)	(0.040)	(0.035)
W×ey_it	0.036^*	0.059^*	0.018^*	0.014^*
W×ey_it	(0.021)	(0.030)	(0.007)	(0.003)
W×hum_it	0.001	0.011	0.001	0.001
W×hum_it	(0.002)	(0.015)	(0.002)	(0.002)
W×open_it	0.102^**	0.106^**	0.044^**	0.029^*
W×open_it	(0.050)	(0.051)	(0.021)	(0.015)
W×urb_it	0.192	0.308	0.108	0.176
W×urb_it	(0.160)	(0.180)	(0.091)	(0.193)
ρ	0.692^***	0.308^***	0.174^***	0.124^***
ρ	(0.055)	(0.114)	(0.038)	(0.041)
R-squared	0.974	0.976	0.978	0.978
Log L	418.611	417.461	624.739	599.737

模型变量	SDM模型		DSDM模型
模型变量	模型I	模型II	模型III	模型IV
cul_it_-1			0.821^***	0.806^***
cul_it_-1			(0.022)	(0.022)
fis_it	0.153^***	0.137^***	0.012^*	0.054^*
fis_it	(0.037)	(0.032)	(0.011)	(0.013)
fin_it	0.272^***	0.268^***	0.058^***	0.056^***
fin_it	(0.038)	(0.039)	(0.018)	(0.020)
ey_it	0.041^***	0.050^***	0.026^***	0.027^***
ey_it	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.008)	(0.008)
hum_it	0.215^**	0.147^*	0.114^**	0.111^**
hum_it	(0.095)	(0.081)	(0.055)	(0.053)
open_it	0.020^*	0.032^*	0.020^*	0.031^*
open_it	(0.019)	(0.036)	(0.016)	(0.017)
urb_it	0.437^***	0.476^***	0.115^**	0.132^***
urb_it	(0.124)	(0.101)	(0.042)	(0.046)
W×fis_it	0.150^*	0.157^**	0.091^***	0.083^**
W×fis_it	(0.083)	(0.080)	(0.035)	(0.039)
W×fin_it	0.262^***	0.261^***	0.140^***	0.102^***
W×fin_it	(0.057)	(0.053)	(0.040)	(0.035)
W×ey_it	0.036^*	0.059^*	0.018^*	0.014^*
W×ey_it	(0.021)	(0.030)	(0.007)	(0.003)
W×hum_it	0.001	0.011	0.001	0.001
W×hum_it	(0.002)	(0.015)	(0.002)	(0.002)
W×open_it	0.102^**	0.106^**	0.044^**	0.029^*
W×open_it	(0.050)	(0.051)	(0.021)	(0.015)
W×urb_it	0.192	0.308	0.108	0.176
W×urb_it	(0.160)	(0.180)	(0.091)	(0.193)
ρ	0.692^***	0.308^***	0.174^***	0.124^***
ρ	(0.055)	(0.114)	(0.038)	(0.041)
R-squared	0.974	0.976	0.978	0.978
Log L	418.611	417.461	624.739	599.737

门槛类	参数估计因素	门槛数	F值	10%	5%	1%	门槛值	95%置信区间
经济发展水平(ey)	文化财政支出 (fis)	单一	24.865^***	3.032	4.675	6.580	4.235	(4.215,4.322)
		双重	6.740^**	3.119	4.229	6.252	1.692	(1.676,1.786)
		三重	2.815	2.532	3.727	5.564
	文化金融政策 (fin)	单一	25.022^***	2.497	3.447	6.583	6.302	(6.074,7.113)
		双重	6.627^**	2.492	3.274	5.816	2.532	(2.025,3.033)
		三重	2.856	2.389	3.107	4.839
人力资本 (hum)	文化财政支出 (fis)	单一	12.166^***	3.099	4.347	7.3785	1.207	(1.125,1.211)
		双重	9.823^***	2.827	3.945	7.370	0.985	(0.912,0.985)
		三重	4.046	1.621	3.238	5.657
	文化金融政策 (fin)	单一	30.161^***	2.682	3.728	7.804	1.283	(1.152,2.831)
		双重	13.234^**	2.611	3.561	5.543	0.964	(0.913,1.258)
		三重	6.545	2.597	3.342	5.257