中国企业增值税税负周期性研究:基于地方政府增长目标的视角

财经论丛 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 5-15.

中国企业增值税税负周期性研究:基于地方政府增长目标的视角

何敏元¹, 方红生²

1.南京财经大学经济学院,江苏南京 210023;
2.浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州 310058

收稿日期:2024-02-02 出版日期:2024-06-10 发布日期:2024-06-13
通讯作者: 方红生(1976—),男,安徽枞阳人,浙江大学经济学院教授,博士生导师。
作者简介:何敏元(1994—),女,安徽马鞍山人,南京财经大学经济学院讲师,博士。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA020)

Research on Cyclical Corporate Value-added Tax Burden in China: The Role of Local Government Growth Targets

HE Minyuan¹, FANG Hongsheng²

1. School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China;
2. School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

Received:2024-02-02 Online:2024-06-10 Published:2024-06-13

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近年来,全球减税浪潮、新冠疫情冲击和复杂的国内外形势加剧了国际税收竞争,中国经济增速趋缓。除了继续深入推进减税降费工作,政府在“十四五”规划中指出要以财政政策为主要手段,提高逆周期调节能力。本文以最大税种增值税为研究对象,考察了企业增值税税负周期性是否体现了逆周期调节。本文使用中国工业企业数据库并处理了内生性问题,实证发现了中国企业增值税税负在经济繁荣期和经济衰退期呈现顺周期性,国有企业增值税税负在经济衰退期无周期性,而非国有企业增值税税负在经济衰退期呈现顺周期性。通过渠道检验,本文发现地方政府增长目标通过扩大生产性政府支出增强了非国有企业增值税税负在经济衰退期呈现的顺周期性。本文不仅为完善减税降费政策提供了重点方向,还为发挥财政政策逆周期调节提供了政策建议。

关键词: 中国企业增值税, 税负周期性, 增长目标, 政府支出

Abstract: In recent years, global tax reduction, COVID-19 pandemics, intricate domestic and international developments have intensified international tax competition, and the economic growth in China has slowed down. Apart from continual tax and fee reduction, it is stated by the Chinese government in the “14th Five-Year Plan” that fiscal policy should be used as the main means to improve countercyclical regulating ability. Taking value-added tax, the largest tax, as the research object, this paper examines whether the cyclicity of corporate value-added tax burden reflects the countercyclical adjustment. Using data from China Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and addressing potential endogeneity problem, we find that value-added tax burden in China is procyclical during booms and recessions. We also find that the value-added tax burden of state-owned enterprises is non-cyclical during recessions, while the value-added tax burden of non-state-owned enterprises is procyclical during recessions. Based on the channel test, growth targets reinforce the procyclicality of the non-state-owned corporate value-added tax burden during recessions by expanding productive government spending. The research conclusion of this paper provides key directions for the implementation of “tax reduction and fee reduction” and policy recommendations for exerting the counter-cycle regulation effect of fiscal policies.

Key words: Corporate Value-added Tax in China, Cyclicity of Tax Burden, Growth Targets, Government Spending

中图分类号:

F812.4

何敏元, 方红生. 中国企业增值税税负周期性研究:基于地方政府增长目标的视角[J]. 财经论丛, 2024, 40(6): 5-15.

HE Minyuan, FANG Hongsheng. Research on Cyclical Corporate Value-added Tax Burden in China: The Role of Local Government Growth Targets[J]. Collected Essays on Finance and Economics, 2024, 40(6): 5-15.

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