人口结构变动对地区外贸出口的影响——基于31个省市的面板数据

财经论丛 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (7): 12-19.

人口结构变动对地区外贸出口的影响——基于31个省市的面板数据

徐元国^1,2, 张陈宇², 阴雪松²

1.浙江工商大学应用经济学研究基地,浙江杭州 310018
2.浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州 310018

收稿日期:2017-02-10 出版日期:2017-07-10 发布日期:2017-07-10
作者简介:徐元国(1977),男,山东巨野人,浙江工商大学应用经济学研究基地副研究员,浙江工商大学经济学院副教授;张陈宇(1989),男,浙江绍兴人,浙江工商大学经济学院硕士生;阴雪松(1990),女,河北衡水人,浙江工商大学经济学院硕士生。
基金资助:
浙江省高校重大人文社科项目攻关计划青年重点资助项目(2013QN051)

Demographic Changes and Regional Export Advantage——Based on the Panel Data of 31 Provinces

XU Yuanguo^1,2, ZHANG Chenyu², YIN Xuesong²

1.Base of Applied Economics Research, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China
2.School of Economics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China

Received:2017-02-10 Online:2017-07-10 Published:2017-07-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文在理论模型和现状分析的基础上,选取中国31个省市的2000~2014年的统计数据建立固定效应回归模型,将人口结构各因素对地区出口优势的影响及区域间存在的差异进行实证分析。研究结果表明,人口结构对地区出口优势具有显著影响,劳动力年龄人口、人口教育结构和人口城乡结构均对地区出口优势产生正向影响,而人口性别结构和人口抚养比对地区出口优势具有负向影响。因此,深入了解各地区的人口结构变动状况,并与当地经济、政策和环境及时协调是充分发挥地区出口优势和缩小地区出口差异的关键。

关键词: 人口结构, 比较优势, 地区出口贸易, 经济增长

Abstract: This paper makes use of the statistical data of 2000~2014 in 31 provinces of China to construct a panel regression model and empirically analyzes the impact of the population structure on regional trade and regional differences. The results showed that the population structure has a significant impact on the regional export advantage, that the labor-age population, the education structure of the population and the population structure of the urban and rural areas have positve effects on the region's exports advantage, whereas the gender structure of the population and the dependency ratio of the population have negative effects. Therefore, the key to give full play to regional export advantage and reduce regional export differences is to fully understand the changes of the population structure in various regions and to coordinate with the local economy, policy and environment in time.

Key words: Population Structure, Comparative Advantage, Regional Exporting, Economic Growth

中图分类号:

F740

徐元国, 张陈宇, 阴雪松. 人口结构变动对地区外贸出口的影响——基于31个省市的面板数据[J]. 财经论丛, 2017, 33(7): 12-19.

XU Yuanguo, ZHANG Chenyu, YIN Xuesong. Demographic Changes and Regional Export Advantage——Based on the Panel Data of 31 Provinces[J]. , 2017, 33(7): 12-19.

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